Shifts in the Educational and Vocational Careers of Dutch Young Adults During the Eighties: On the Decreasing Pay-off of Education

This article examines the development of the educational and vocational careers of 1257 subjects born between 1961 and 1969 as a function of economic circumstances in the Netherlands during the eighties. Subjects were expected to attend school longer in times of recession, to have a higher level of education, while getting a suitable, high-quality job (in terms of number of hours, appointment type and occupational level) would be difficult. Consistent with the hypotheses, members of younger birth cohorts indeed needed less time to find a job after leaving full-time education. However, the other hypotheses were not supported: enrollment in higher education increased per birth cohort, the level of education of the youngest cohort was not lower than that of older cohorts, and members of cohort 1961 had a better job than younger cohorts in terms of appointment type, number of hours worked, and job level.